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“History tells us the US-Ukraine natural resource deal likely will not improve Ukraine’s long-term economic or security position. Economic investment for resource extraction is not a security guarantee, even if traded for weapons; as a matter of fact, these commitments could just as well be honoured by whoever controls Ukrainian territory. Additionally, the US is not concretely obligated to deliver weapons in return. Looking at this strictly economically, a similar agreement with the EU has not materially increased Ukrainian GDP. 

"Ultimately, this is an agreement of geopolitical convenience which reflects American weakness: the US needs Ukrainian minerals to counteract the Chinese blockade; in exchange Ukraine is desperate for a continued flow of weapons. But Ukraine is not as cheap a producer of these rare earths as China, so once Trump’s tariff policies are negotiated away as he promised, the need for Ukrainian minerals will diminish. Ukraine will once again find itself fighting for support."